Issue published: 30 April 2021

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A New Perspective on Poland’s Policy towards Russia in 2005–2007: A Middle Power Attempts to Engage a Rising Major Power

Marijuš Antonovič, p. 1–28

Abstract: Scholars of middle powers have been trying to solve its definitional issues and some progress has been made in the systemic approach. This article shows that further advancement may be gained by employing neoclassical realism in studying middle powers’ foreign policy behaviour. This done by analysing Poland’s policy towards Russia in 2005–2007. It is widely accepted in academic literature that Poland in 2005–2007, during the rule of the Law and Justice Party, pursued a confrontational policy towards Russia. However, this article challenges such widespread views. It demonstrates that Poland’s policy towards Russia was actually simultaneously based on balancing and engagement. Using a neoclassical realist framework and data gathered from interviews with Poland’s main foreign policymakers at that time, this article shows that the balancing was caused by the power asymmetry and differing interests between Russia and Poland, whereas the engagement – by the Polish policymakers’ attempts to influence Russia’s intentions towards Poland and by their perceived situation in the European balance of power.

Keywords: Polish‑Russian relations, Law and Justice Party, Polish foreign policy, Poland’s eastern policy, middle powers

Russian Influence in the Czech Republic as a Grey Zone Case Study

Josep Baqués‑Quesada and Guillem Colom Piella, p. 29–56

Abstract: In recent years, the concept of grey zone has been popularised to analyse the activities a State can use to influence the decisions and to limit the strategic choices of another State below the threshold of war. This article presents a case study, aimed at verifying if the Russian activities in the Czech Republic may constitute a grey zone.The paper commences by introducing the concept of the grey zone and developing the appropriate theoretical framework to identify its main characteristics. It continues by examining the Russian influence in the Czech Republic by using open sources, local sources and documents from the Czech intelligence services. It concludes by asserting that the analysed case meets most of the requirements to classify it as a ‘limited grey zone’. This new theoretical development may help to assess similar situations that may occur in this or other nations.

Keywords: grey zone, hybrid threat, Russia, Czech Republic, political influence, disinformation, active measures

Municipalities without Elected Councils. Causes of Insufficient Fulfilment of Candidate Lists in some Municipalities in Local Elections in 2018

Petr Dvořák and Stanislav Balík, p. 57–82

Abstract: By means of a qualitative analysis of the sixteen municipalities in the Czech Republic in which additional elections were held in 2019, five variables were identified which may explain why additional elections occurred. For analysis, we used data from the Czech Statistical Office (municipal elections 1994 to 2019), the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic and information on individual municipalities from media analysis. We have identified the following possible variables which may affect whether additional elections are held: end of elites, non‑stand as a candidate again, the end of municipal representatives, incumbent decides not to defend mandate (variable Non‑defend mandate) and personal disputes within the municipality. Conversely, the financial situation of the municipality, the age of the representatives, the voter turnout in the municipality, the number of voters, the number of candidate lists or associations and candidates proved inconclusive in most municipalities. A significant increase in new candidates is a consequence rather than an explanation of the holding of additional elections.

Keywords: local elections, additional elections, The Czech Republic, quality research, candidates

Sustainable Development through Morphogenetic Analysis: The Case of Slovenia

Tea Golob and Matej Makarovič, p. 83–105

Abstract: This article addresses Slovenia as a case of a post‑communist country in terms of its sustainable development. It deploys an in‑depth historical analysis and extensive empirical data while exploring Slovenian society through the analytical lens of morphostatic/morphogenetic approach (Archer 2017). The focus is on (1) the country’s structural and cultural settings in each selected period in order to explore whether there has been a mutual reinforcement of the levels of both, contributing to the sustainable development; (2) ways in which agents respond to such changes reinforcing or changing the structural settings. The selection of quantitative structural indicators of sustainable development is based on the indicators of sustainable development that have a direct reference to the Sustainable Development Agenda of the United Nations 2030 and also adopted by the current Strategy of Development of Slovenia. The selection of survey data was based on their connection with the same sustainability issues and their availability for a longer period, particularly close to the time points of the cycles observed.The findings show that in terms of contributing to sustainable development, the presence of morphogenesis in the selected cycles turns out to be rather limited, and there is a severe lack of political reflexivity (cf. Al‑Amoudi 2017) among actors.

Keywords: Slovenia, morphogenetic cycles, sustainable development, economy, governance

The Visegrad Group countries: The United Arab Emirates Perspective

Adam Krzymowski, p. 107–126

Abstract: This manuscript analyses the role and importance of cooperation between the Visegrad Group (V4) countries and the most globally active member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is the United Arab Emirates. In view of the V4+ concept implemented with partners from the Middle East, Israel or Egypt, the presented analysis is important and meets the lack of this element in the scientific debate. This study is based on empirical research and its findings are the result of not only observation but also 10 years of direct participation of the author in many activities related to the cooperation of the Visegrad Group countries and the UAE, including as ambassador, senior advisor to Dubai Expo 2020, especially responsible for strategies and dynamisation relations between Central and Eastern Europe (except Poland) and the United Arab Emirates. According to the author’s opinion, presented in the conclusion, there is now a huge opportunity to present V4 projects, including as a part of the broader strategy of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) during World Expo Dubai, which will take place from October 2021 to March 2022, and make this initiative a globally recognizable project. However, coordinating and accelerating joint actions is required.

Keywords: Visegrad Group, United Arab Emirates, V4, European Union, GCC

Transitional Justice and Democratic Consolidation in the Post‑Communist Space: A Comparative Review of the Czech Republic, Latvia and Slovakia

Yerkebulan Sairambay, p. 127–142

Abstract: In this comparative review, I first evaluate scholarly findings attempting to dis/prove a relationship between transitional justice and the consolidation of democracy. Second, I outline several criteria for ‘democratic’ transitional justice in order to be able to judge transitional justice policies. Third, I examine and judge transitional justice policies of the Czech Republic, Latvia and Slovakia by these criteria. Last, I argue that transitional justice is neither a prerequisite for the successful consolidation of democracy nor inherently democratic unless it is carried out in coordination with the ideals of liberal democracy, which might support the achievement of peace and societal stability in a transition period.

Keywords: transitional justice, consolidation of democracy, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Slovakia

Central Europe between the Great Powers: Contemporary Foreign‑policy Orientation

Jaroslav Ušiak, Ľubomír Klačko, Ivana Šostáková, p. 143–164

Abstract: The main aim of this this study was to highlight the relations between the Central European countries (Slovakia, Czechia, Poland and Hungary) and the two greatpowers—the United States and the Russian Federation. We examined the importance ofthis region from a geopolitical perspective, analysing the relations between the Central European countries and the great powers through two of their critical manifestations: military bases and energy security. The selection of these themes was justified by the frequent centralisation of the abovementioned topics in political discussions and theirrole in underpinning the securitisation of political leaders. The analysis of government strategy papers, and politicians’ statements and press releases, which included the views of three international relations experts, revealed diverse interstate relations. Each of the four Central European countries claims to be a responsible and reliable member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; however, not all of them place the same emphasis on this partnership. Regarding the energy sector, we came to the same conclusion. The countries declare their independence, but the RF continues to have a significant or dominant influence. The geographical position of the four surveyed countries is probably an important factor in this situation and the great powers generally adapt their foreign policy towards them accordingly, as evidenced by the selected topics. The results of the analyses confirmed the importance of this regionfrom a geopolitical perspective.

Keywords: Central Europe, U.S., Russia, energy, military bases, geopolitics