Issue published: 09 September 2023

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Spatial Distance and Representation in Closed PR List: Revisiting the U‑Curve Argument

Dejan Bursać and Dušan Radujko, p. 471–487

Abstract: The authors are testing the patterns of geographical representation in single nationwide district closed‑list PR systems, in the framework of an earlier study made by Latner and McGann (2005), who suggested that MPs mostly reside in central metropolitan areas, as well as in distant regions, to the detriment of descriptive representation of areas adjacent to the capital. In this way, spatial distance serves as an incentive for parties to nominate lists comprised mostly of candidates from metropolitan urban centres who can easily reach the mid‑distance municipalities for campaigning and constituency service, but also of those candidates residing in peripheral regions in which there is some sort of political or ethno‑cultural saliency, prompting the voters to prefer their local candidates over capital city politicians. Authors are offering a novel approach of measuring and comparing spatial distance to the data on representation of local administrative units and regional subdivisions of four countries (Montenegro, Netherlands, Serbia and Slovakia). While the findings indeed indicate overrepresentation of capital cities and underrepresentation of neighbouring areas, the representation of peripheral areas is not significantly pronounced and seemingly depends more on a contextual case‑to‑case basis than on a general pattern related to spatial distance producing political or ethno‑cultural saliency.

Keywords: political geography, PR list, closed‑list, single nationwide district, descriptive representation, Montenegro, Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia

From Respect to Nazi Allusions: the Changing Emotional Climates of Fidesz towards Germany after 1990

András Hettyey, p. 489–516

Abstract: This paper aims to enhance our understanding of the foreign policy of Hungary by looking at the emotional underpinnings of the relationship between Fidesz and Germany. Inspired by the ‘emotional turn’ in social sciences in general, and IR in particular, this paper charts the changing ways in which Fidesz politicians (both in government and opposition) have perceived Germany and German politics on an emotional level since 1990. We show how a mostly positive emotional climate before 2010 slowly turned into anger, culminating in repeated allusions to Germany’s Nazi past. The main question is: how can we account for the fluctuations in the way Fidesz politicians have perceived Germany over the past three decades? While ‘rational’ policy disagreements have certainly played a part (i.e. on migration), they cannot explain on their own the ever intensifying anger on the part of Fidesz decision‑makers, especially as the two countries arestill close political and economic partners and share a wide range of common interests. Complementing rational approaches, we propose that ‘collective narcissism’ informs the general emotional disposition of key Fidesz figures since 2014, leading to a continuing estrangement between the successive Orbán governments and its German partners.

Keywords: Hungary, Germany, Fidesz, Orbán Viktor, collective narcissism

Forget about voting, we are going on vacation! Examining the effect of school holidays on turnout

Jakub Jusko and Peter Spáč, p. 517–537

Abstract: Media and politicians widely debate the relationship between holidays and political participation, but research in the field is underdeveloped. To test the impact of holidays on election turnout, we use a natural experimental setting in general electionsin Slovakia with respect to the presence of holidays near election day. More specifically, while a part of the country had no holidays, other regions either experienced holidays for the first time or had the holiday in a repeated manner. The results from difference‑in‑differences and OLS regressions employed in the analysis show that experiencing a holiday near election day decreases electoral turnout. However, this negative effect of holidays on turnout is found to be significant only in territories that experienced holidays for the first time, while it is absent in territories that had holidays near elections repeatedly. This finding points to a potential habituation of the electorate and the holidays’ influence in the long run. The paper thus contributes to our understanding of how different time aspects of holidays affect electoral turnout.

Keywords: holidays, turnout, elections, Slovakia, difference‑in‑differences

The Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry in the Austrian National Council – Influence and Impact from the Perspective of the Austrian National Council Members

Matthias Keppel, p. 539–570

Abstract: Committees of inquiry in the Austrian National Council gained a significant upgrade through a reform in 2015: for the first time, a parliamentary minority can now demand the establishment of a committee of inquiry. This reform meant not only a strengthening of control rights, but also an increase in parliamentary investigations in Austria. The aim of this article is to shed light on the parliamentary perspective andto deepen the understanding of investigative committees. In this way, it is to be shown which potentials, but also weaknesses, can be found in the investigative instrument from the MPs’ point of view. A first‑time survey of members of committees of inquiry showed that the perceptions of the reform and the democratic benefits differed greatly between the governing party ÖVP and the opposition party SPÖ. The increasing polarisation of the political debate also led to a further divergence in the approval or rejection of the investigative instrument. These developments may not only result in a weakening of the investigative instrument, but also directly challenge parliamentary democracy.

Keywords: committee of inquiry, reform perceptions, Austrian National Council, political control, instrument of control, Quality of Democracy

Economic Parameters vs Voting Behaviour in the Polish Presidential Election in 2020: Poviat level analysis

Małgorzata Madej, p. 571–591

Abstract: Voting behaviour is affected by various factors and the effect varies in individual countries. Economic and geographic factors are among the major criteria taken into account in electorate segmentation. The present study analyses them inthe case of the Polish presidential election in 2020, held under the circumstances of strong polarisation within the society and controversies surrounding the rule‑of‑law and democratic standards. The present study analyses voter turnout and results of the second round of the election, focusing on the subregional level of poviats (counties).The analysis considers macroeconomic factors (such as GDP per capita, unemployment rate, average remuneration), financial condition of the local government (measured by budgetary revenues) and urbanisation (comparing the biggest cities to other counties).The findings confirm correlation between the macroeconomic parameters of the subregion and voter turnout. In the case of voting results, the hypotheses concerning macroeconomic parameters and the status of the biggest cities are confirmed, but there’s no evidence of correlation of the average remuneration on the poviat level and support for the centre‑liberal candidate.

Keywords: Poland, elections, segmentation, economic determinants, poviat, voting behaviour

Frames and sentiments of the Twitter communication by German Chancellor Scholz during the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Stefan Nisch, p. 593–620

Abstract: In a complex information environment, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a major challenge to the communication of political leaders throughout the world. The objective of this article is to analyse the frames and sentiments used by German chancellor Olaf Scholz, employing a novel data set of his Twitter communication (N = 612) during the Russian invasion of Ukraine between 24 February 2022 and 24 February 2023. A combination of computational text analysis approaches with natural language processing (NLP) techniques was used, including the Valence Aware Dictionary and the sentiment Reasoner (VADER) model for sentiment analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for topic modelling. This research investigates the prevalent frames and emotions in the chancellor’s communication, providing valuable insights into the German government’s stance and strategic communication during this critical geopolitical event. The results of the study revealed that the chancellor used the frames ‘effects ofthe Ukraine invasion’, ‘climate & environment’, ‘solidarity’ and ‘Russian aggression’ and communicated with positive sentiments. By examining the chancellor’s Twitter communication, this study contributes to the understanding of political communication in the digital era, particularly in the context of international crises, and offers implications for policymakers, scholars and the broader public.

Keywords: Olaf Scholz, Russian invasion, sentiment analysis, social media

Does the state of emergency create an opportunity for democratic erosion? Lessons from post‑communist Central and Southeast Europe

Dušan Pavlović, p. 621–643

Abstract: The paper’s key puzzle is the variation in lockdown‑related democratic decline in the region of Central and Southeast Europe given the incumbents’ ideological and regime (dis)similarity. Why did similar regimes not respond to the pandemic in the same manner by using the opportunity to grab more executive power and diminish the authority of other institutions? While some argue that a state of emergency provides an ideal opportunity for democratic decline due to reduced costs, others believe that autocratic regimes with a ‘pre‑existing condition for autocracy’ are more vulnerable. To contribute to this discussion, I examine three examples from post‑communist Central and Southeast Europe (Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia) during the pandemic‑related state of emergency and lockdowns of 2020 and 2021. I consider several relevant factors, the most important of which is the prospect of winning the next election. To erode democracy, autocratic incumbents must feel insecure about the outcome of the next election to use the opportunity created by the state of emergency. If they are uncertain of victory, they may prefer to expand their executive powers during the state of emergency, thus undermining democracy.

Keywords: democratic decline, executive aggrandisement, hybrid regimes, state of emergency